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Natural climate variability, part 2: Interpretation of the post 2000 temperature standstill


Nicola Scafetta1, Aberto Mirandola2*, Antonio Bianchini3,4

1 Meteorological Observatory, Department of Earth Sciences, Environment and Georesources, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Largo S. Marcellino, Naples 10 - 80138, Italy
2 Department of Industrial Engineering, Università degli Studi di Padova, 1 Via Venezia, Padova 35131, Italy
3 Department of Physics and Astronomy, Università degli Studi di Padova, Italy
4 INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova, Vicolo dell’Osservatorio 5, Padova I-35122, Italy
ISSN: 0392-8764
Vol. 35, Special Issue 1, September 2017, pp. S18-S26
DOI: 10.18280/ijht.35Sp0103
Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0

The period from 2000 to 2016 shows a modest warming trend that the advocates of the anthropogenic global warming theory have labeled as the "pause" or “hiatus.” These labels were chosen to indicate that the observed temperature standstill period results from an unforced internal fluctuation of the climate (e.g. by heat uptake of the deep ocean) that the computer climate models are claimed to occasionally reproduce without contradicting the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGWT) paradigm. In part 1 of this work, it was shown that the statistical analysis rejects such labels with a 95% confidence because the standstill period has lasted more than the 15 year period limit provided by the AGWT advocates themselves. Anyhow, the strong warming peak observed in 2015-2016, the "hottest year on record," gave the impression that the temperature standstill stopped in 2014. Herein, the authors show that such a temperature peak is unrelated to anthropogenic forcing: it simply emerged from the natural fast fluctuations of the climate associated to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. By removing the ENSO signature, the authors show that the temperature trend from 2000 to 2016 clearly diverges from the general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Thus, the GCMs models used to support the AGWT are very likely flawed. By contrast, the semi-empirical climate models proposed in 2011 and 2013 by Scafetta, which are based on a specific set of natural climatic oscillations believed to be astronomically induced plus a significantly reduced anthropogenic contribution, agree far better with the latest observations.

Keywords: Climate Change, Post 2000 Temperature Standstill, Climate Models, Natural Climatic Oscillations. S18